Session 22 - The Future Of War?

One more important type of warfare, in addition to hegemonic wars, total wars, civil wars, cold wars, guerilla wars etc is a warfare domain that will, in all likelihood, determine the future of warfare just like its primary tool will determine the future of all competitiveness in all domains. Cyber warfare. Fought through the most powerful tool of the 21^st century: technology.

As the world develops and war evolves, a very dangerous dynamic that has appeared onto the landscape is the use of the internet and of computer technology such as USBs and viruses to engage in acts of war. A good example is Stuxnet, a virus implanted through the use of an infected USB which engrains itself in the computer and internally causes its malfunction. Stuxnet was responsible for the invalidation of around 20% of Iran’s nuclear centrifuges in 2010-2011.

Cyber warfare, in its very nature, is uniquely different from all types of aggression, and hence presents certain complications requiring creative new frameworks and solutions. Cyber attacks present the problem, in such a highly digitalized world, of a threat to economic might of the scale never before experienced. With one attack, potentially, the New York Stock Exchange could be intensely damaged. With one move, a nuclear arsenal could be made useless. Adding to the complexity of the issue is the problem of anonymity. With cyber attacks, it is difficult to ascertain who the actual perpetrator actually was. The use of Stuxnet in Iran or cyber attacks on financial institutions in the USA have only been ‘claimed’ to be initiatives of the United States and China, with no evidential clarity or consequences. Furthermore, the issue of non-state actors is one of grave concern. Unlike traditional inter-state warfare, cyber warfare can be conducted superbly effectively by a group of well trained technical experts with no allegiance to any state.

Given its implications in terms of economic repercussions for cyber victims and the extremely complicated ‘net space’ in which it occurs instead of in the ‘real world,’ there is an urgent need for the global community to address this issue through the UN and form frameworks and acceptable means and methods of its exercise.